STUART VARNEY – THE ECONOMY – AND FERTILITY RATES

Our keynote speaker today at the Realtors Triple Play Conference in Atlantic City was Stuart Varney, veteran business journalist and commentator for FOX News.  I expected Mr. Varney to talk about the economy, but was less inclined to anticipate him expounding on fertility rates.  But in the end, as you will see, it makes perfect sense for him to include population analysis in his reports.

I was more than pleasantly surprised by his predictions for next year.  Based upon agreements that have been reached in Washington that include the extension of the Bush tax cuts for another two years, Varney predicted that the United States will experience a 3%, perhaps even a 4%, growth in our economy by the summer of 2011.  He believes that by maintaining the current tax structure the $1.5 trillion on the sidelines will come into play as consumer confidence grows.  Businesses that have been reluctant to utilize their substantial cash reserves will view a consistent tax structure as a sign that it time to invest in their businesses again.  From your lips to God’s ears, Mr. Varney!

While this is good news, it may be premature in the long run for dancing in the streets.  It seems that fertility rates around the world are dropping.  In fact, in all developed societies around the world birth rates are below population replacement levels.  “We have never seen anything like this before, ever” Varney said.  In the United States, and countries around the world, there are fewer working people who are having fewer children.  In 10 years, 55 out of every 100 people in the US will be retired and 65 years of age or older.  “That is not an economically viable society.  We can’t do it”.  While Varney foretells a day of reckoning that may be coming, I think we can be encouraged about the year ahead.  As to what will happen a decade from now and beyond, we may well have to make painful adjustments, but I am convinced the America I believe in will have the grit to face and defeat whatever challenges that confront us.  That’s my take on it, with some help from Stuart Varney.